The Charlotte Hornets (8-12) will attempt to snap their seven-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Miami Heat (10-11) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports Sun at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 1, 2017.
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat Betting Prediction
The Hornets are trying to rebound after their 126-113 loss to the Toronto Raptors in their last matchup. Toronto’s 8.0 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Charlotte, who had a rate of 11.3. The Raptors’ mark was better than their season average of 13.2. Dwight Howard led Charlotte in scoring with 22 points on 8-for-12 shooting.
In the Heat’s last game, they got blown out by the New York Knicks, 115-86. New York was effective at getting and making free throws. The Knicks made 22 of their 26 free throws (84.6 percent), while the Heat were just 12-20 (60.0 percent). With 18 points on 6-for-11 shooting, Kelly Olynyk led Miami in scoring.
Miami could dominate on defense as they clash against one of the league’s worst offenses. The Heat rank fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.502), while Charlotte is 26th in effective field goal percentage (0.498). Ball protection should be an advantage for the Hornets. They rank 1st at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.9 percent). Conversely, the Heat force the ninth-fewest turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.9 percent).
Charlotte comes into the contest with records of 8-12 straight up (SU) and 9-10-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is exceedingly accurate when setting the O/U total of Hornets games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Miami is 10-11 SU and 7-12-2 ATS. Of the Heat’s 21 games, 12 have finished under the projected point total.
Howard has averaged 19.4 points, 14.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks over the last five games for Charlotte.
After splitting four games last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. The Heat won the most recent game 112-99. The Heat had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (17.9 vs. 10.8) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.601 vs. 0.500).
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Hornets, ATS Winner – Hornets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Charlotte is 2-7-1 ATS with 5 overs and 5 unders.
Miami is 1-6-2 ATS at home with 5 overs and 4 unders.
When allowing less than 100 points, Miami is 7-3 and Charlotte is 4-1.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Heat are 7-4 and the Hornets are 8-5.
Miami ranks first in three pointers allowed per game (24.3) while Charlotte ranks 26th (31.9).
The Hornets rank third in steals allowed per game (7.0) while the Heat rank 25th (8.9).
Charlotte ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Miami ranks 22nd (18.1).
The Hornets average 47.0 rebounds per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Heat rank 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (44.7).
Charlotte ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (10.3) while Miami ranks 16th (12.6).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (19.4) while the Hornets rank 14th (22.6).
Miami ranks 11th in blocks per game (5.0) while Charlotte ranks 15th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
The Hornets rank second in fast break points allowed per game (7.5) while the Heat rank sixth (9.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Charlotte is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Hornets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.6, up from 1.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 99.2 points per game (0.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.2 points per game (0.7 below their season average).
