You can bet on one sure thing at the NBA Draft Thursday night. Center Deandre Ayton will go to the Phoenix Suns with the first overall pick.
The University of Arizona star is a no-brainer to stay in state and give the Suns an inside offensive force. But after the No. 1 pick, things get dicey. Many teams are looking to trade up or trade down and several top prospects tried to dissuade certain teams — Memphis and Sacramento in particular — from taking them.
If the Sacramento Kings stay at No. 2 overall, the safe pick for the franchise is Duke University forward Marvin Bagley III. He was the only top prospect to work out for the team and he has no problem going to Sacramento.
But will the Kings stay in that spot? What they decide will obviously have a ripple effect up and down the draft board.
The middle of the draft’s first round is a complete free-for-all, since a few of the expected lottery picks could fall. Also, some second-tier prospects have earned widely varying assessments from teams.
PORTER JR. X-FACTOR
The wild card is this NBA Draft is forward Michael Porter Jr., who was limited to two games plus two minutes at the University of Missouri this season due to back surgery. General managers are weighing his high ceiling against the injury issue and uncertainty about his ability to fit in.
The Kings have at least considered him. Perhaps that team is willing to trade down a few spots in the draft to take Porter.
Many experts believe the Cleveland Cavaliers won’t let Porter fall past their eighth overall pick — and the team might move up a spot or two to take him. The Dallas Mavericks also seem enamored.
But with some insiders wondering if Porter will even be healthy enough to play this season, he could go anywhere from No. 2 to No. 10.
DONCIC’S DRAFT STOCK SOARS
Another wild card in the draft is 6-foot-8 point guard Luka Doncic from Real Madrid. His fluctuating stock soared late, prompting the Atlanta Hawks to debate taking him or Michigan State center Jaren Jackson Jr. at No. 3 overall.
If the team can’t decide between these two, then it might trade down to get Oklahoma guard Trae Young. Several teams are interested in moving up to take Doncic.
The Hawks also own the 19th, 30th and 34th pick in this NBA Draft, so they could move down with their top pick, then up with a package of later picks. They could also use their draft position to dump an unwanted contract or two on another franchise.
The Memphis Grizzlies, picking fourth, and Dallas Mavericks, picking fifth, also covet Doncic.
YOUNG’S STOCK SLIPS
After tearing up college basketball for much of the season, Young showed signs of wear in the latter stages. Perhaps concerns about his strength are causing him to fall out of the Top 10 in some mock drafts.
Young has gained 14 pounds since the end of the season and he sounds ready to fit in wherever he goes.
“I just want to go to a place where they want me,” he told reporters in New York after arriving for the draft. “The way I play I can fit into any system. It doesn’t matter. Being able to control my own team, that’s something you’ve got to earn. You don’t get handed that.”
KENTUCKY’S MAN OF MYSTERY
University of Kentucky guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander worked out at his agency’s pro day, then refused to work out for individual teams. The strategy seemed to work.
While other top prospects raised concerns during workouts and interviews, Gilgeous-Alexander stayed in the shadows. The Atlanta Hawks are considering him, Young and University of Alabama guard Collin Sexton with the sixth overall pick.
