What happens during the next few weeks in the NHL marketplace could adjust the 2019 Stanley Cup odds.
When elite defenseman John Carlson eschewed free agency to re-up with the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals for eight years and $64 million, he solidified their chances of repeating. The Los Angeles Kings got a boost by agreeing to terms with winger Ilya Kovalchuk, a free agent returning from the KHL.
Should free agent center John Tavares leave the New York Islanders for, say, the San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs or Dallas Stars, that would alter the picture.
Beyond Tavares, the free agent market looks pedestrian. A few good players like Maple Leafs winger James van Riemsdyk could change places, but there aren’t many team-changers available.
The trade market is another matter. The Ottawa Senators are likely to move defenseman Erik Karlsson, arguably the NHL’s top offensive defenseman.
Also, the Columbus Blue Jackets could trade top winger Artemi Panarin. Like Karlsson, he will be an unrestricted free agent in a year. Like the Senators, the Blue Jackets don’t want to lose him without getting something in return.
The same goes for the Carolina Hurricanes. They are looking to move winger Jeff Skinner rather than extend him. Other notable players involved in trade discussions include Montreal winger Max Pacioretty and Buffalo center Ryan O’Reilly.
HEAVY BIDDING ON TAVARES
The Islanders offered Tavares an eight-year, $88 million contract. That franchise is moving in the right direction under new general manager Lou Lamoriello and new coach Barry Trotz.
If they keep Tavares (as many expect they will), they could become an interesting dark horse contender. They have a breakout star in Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal and they just added a nice pile of assets at the NHL Draft.
The Islanders still must find their next goaltender and upgrade their defense, but keeping Tavares would make them a serious threat.
Handicappers already loved Tampa Bay Lightning heading into next season. Imagine if that team could wedge Tavares under its salary cap.
“Well, we would have to make room, we would have to make room,” Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman told reporters at the draft. “If we brought in a significant salary, we would have to.”
If the Maple Leafs somehow convince Tavares to join the party in his native Toronto, they would immediately become a bigger favorite. That team already has significant firepower with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander up front.
The Stars, like the Sharks, would also take a big jump with Tavares. Their odds of winning the title would improve dramatically by adding him and subtracting the fading Jason Spezza.
The Boston Bruins would also climb by moving center David Krejci and/or forward David Backes to fit Tavares under the salary cap.
AWAITING THE KARLSSON TRADE
The Golden Knights went nearly landed Erik Karlsson before last season’s NHL trade deadline. Then they won the Western Conference anyway before falling to the Capitals in the Stanley Cup Final.
Now the Golden Knights have tons of salary cap space with wingers David Perron and James Neal testing the marketplace as free agents. Acquiring Karlsson would fortify their standing as a ’19 favorite.
The same would go for any team that is able to pry Karlsson out of Ottawa, which faces as long-haul rebuild after last season’s collapse.
