There are some important Kentucky Derby tidbits that should be passed on because you never know when one little angle can turn into big dividends. The $2 million extravaganza will be held Saturday May 6 at Churchill Downs and the field is pretty much intact except for possible late injuries.
The important Kentucky Derby tidbits should be processed to evaluate the logical contenders on Saturday. In that regard, for those that figure lightning doesn’t strike twice they should look at last year’s Kentucky Derby result.
The first four betting interests ran one through four for the first time in history. Even with that result, the payoffs were more than decent. The $1 superfecta paid nearly $550. The favorites have dominated the Kentucky Derby of late as the last four winners were also the betting choices.
Having an April prep race has also added a little flair to Kentucky Derby tidbits. For the last 96 years, runners that didn’t have an April prep only won five times. Hence would fit into the longshot category using one of these important Kentucky Derby tidbits. He won the Sunland Derby on March 26. The Spiral Stakes winner Fast and Accurate and the UAE Derby winner Thunder Snow would have to be looked on in a similar vein since their last starts were in March. Thunder Snow is owned by the powerful Godolphin group.
The timing between a last prep race and the Kentucky Derby can also be crucial. In the last five years, the days between the last prep and the Derby for the winner has been between 21 and 35 days.
One of the important Kentucky Derby tidbits is about where a horse was stabled in the spring before the Kentucky Derby. In the last 11 years only one horse prep somewhere other than Florida, California, Kentucky or Arkansas. That runner was Mine That Bird, who was in New Mexico and then paid a huge number winning the 2009 Kentucky Derby.
Before bettors blindly bet on this year’s Wood Memorial winner Irish War Cry know that the winner of the Wood has not been in the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby since 2003.
The inside post has been death in the Kentucky Derby in recent years. Only Ferdinand, trained by the late great Charlie Whittingham, won from that post since 1986. If a horse has not or will not project to run a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure, he should be approached with extreme caution. In the last 20 years only California Chrome won the Derby with anything less than a 100 Beyer figure or higher.
Because the Kentucky Derby will have an unusually large field, they must use an auxiliary gate. The main gate will end with 12 starters and then there will be a gap for the other gate. It used to be looked at as a disadvantage to break toward the outside in the Kentucky Derby but five of the last nine Kentucky Derby winners started from the auxiliary gate. Last year’s winner Nyquist started from post 12 and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah broke from post 15.
One of the reasons that the Kentucky Derby is so difficult to win is that it does not play by the same standards of most races. Day after day around the country speed plays a pivotal part of winning races. This goes for New York, Kentucky, Florida, Chicago and California. But speed has not been king in the Kentucky Derby. In the last 50 years, only five horses have led the entire way in the Kentucky Derby. One was the favorite, Riva Ridge in 1972. Three were the second choices. Those runners were Winning Colors, Spend a Buck and Bold Forbes. Bob Baffert’s student War Emblem took them all the way in the Derby in 2002 as the ninth betting choice.
Coming to the Kentucky Derby sharp as a tack has been the way to go in recent years. Last year Doug O’Neill’s student Nyquist was the sixth straight Kentucky Derby winner to win his final prep before the Run for the Roses.
On the other side of the coin is one of the important Kentucky Derby tidbits that says beware of just the last race Beyer Speed Figure. In the last ten years only two runners had the highest Beyer going into the Kentucky Derby and won. Street Sense did it in 2007 and California Chrome accomplished the feat three years ago.
They say that time only matters if you are in jail or waiting for a bus but time in the Kentucky Derby can be a fleeting dream. Arguably the greatest horse of all time Secretariat ran the fastest Kentucky Derby in 1973 in 1:59 2/5. Monarchos in 2001 has been the only other horse that broke the 2-minute barrier. The eventually superstar sire Northern Dancer won the 1964 Derby in 2 minutes flat. The next two fastest Derbies were won by Spend a Buck and Decidedly.
Logical thinking does not always work in the Kentucky Derby. If a horse is closing at nine furlongs, one would logically guess the runner will benefit by the longer one and a quarter mile of the Kentucky Derby. But the last runner to win the Kentucky Derby that was more than ten lengths back was Orb in 2013.
Granted, what has happened in the past is just that – history. By the same token, it is said that history repeats itself. There are just some long and interesting Kentucky Derby statistics that should make a bettor at least aware of what has transpired and why things tend to transpire the way they do on Kentucky Derby Day.
Lastly, let’s tackle the human factor in the Kentucky Derby. Steve Asmussen will be saddling Hence, Lookin at Lee and Untrapped on Saturday at Churchill. Asmussen has the distinction of being a trainer that has had the most Kentucky Derby starters without a win at 15.
Nobody has saddled more horses in the Kentucky Derby than D. Wayne Lukas, who is still going strong as an octogenarian. He has saddled 48 Derby runners. Todd Pletcher is second on this list with 45 and he only won the Kentucky Derby once. Only five others have run in the money. If one of the Pletcher runners this year is your cup of tea, that very stat could drive action away. That figures to boost the price on a horse like Always Dreaming and by Saturday night, it just may be about sweet dreams.
