The Seattle Seahawks have struggled to run the ball competently ever since Marshawn Lynch’s short-lived retirement after the 2015 season. Plenty of backs have tried to fill Lynch’s shoes, including Thomas Rawls, Christine Michael, C.J. Prosise, Alex Collins, Eddie Lacy, Chris Carson and Mike Davis. None have managed to stick for one reason or another. San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny becomes the latest to try his hand after the Seahawks drafted him with the 27th pick.
With Pick 27, #SeahawksDraft RB Rashaad Penny! pic.twitter.com/8Yf9VGZtRo
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) April 27, 2018
The pick was a bit of a surprise, as Penny was typically not ahead of the likes of Derrius Guice, Ronald Jones and Sony Michel on rankings and mock drafts. But given the situation, Penny could be a huge bargain in fantasy drafts.
Reasons to Get Excited
Likely Starter
There was no telling who would be Seattle’s top running back before the draft. Carson and Prosise have shown flashes but face major health questions. With Seattle willing to spend their first-round pick on him (and apparently willing to take him at 18 before trading down) it’s fair to assume they see him as their new lead back.
Production
Penny was excellent in his final year at San Diego State. He rushed for an FBS-leading 2,027 yards and added 19 touchdowns. He was one of two running backs (Bryce Love) to average over seven yards per carry with more than 200 rushes.
Though Penny played in the Mountain West, he was still successful against Power Five opponents. In two such games in 2017 (Stanford, Arizona State) he ran 50 times for 391 yards and two touchdowns. He is capable of putting up big numbers and Pete Carroll’s Seahawks will likely give him every opportunity.
Among all Combine-invite RBs, Rashad Penny ranked:
1st in yards per carry (7.27)
2nd in yards after contact per attempt (4.17)
3rd in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.24)
And was our most-difficult RB to tackle on first contact (just 58% of the time)
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 27, 2018
He shined on film, too, with some declaring him a first-round running back before the draft.
Durability
The Seahawks have struggled with injuries at running back ever since Lynch’s initial injury early in 2015. Rawls, Prosise and Carson each looked like Lynch’s heir until injuries slowed them. Penny doesn’t have much of an injury history and Seattle GM John Schneider noted he “doesn’t have as much wear and tear.” If he can play all 16 games, he’ll get much closer to being the next Lynch than any of those who have tried in the last few years.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Crowded Depth Chart
The Seahawks do have a lot of running backs and any of them could eclipse Penny due to Seattle’s “always compete” mentality. Lacy, Rawls and Prosise were the Seattle running backs to own at this time last year, but Carson beat all of them out in training camp. Seattle still has Carson and Prosise, who could push Penny if they’re fully recovered.
Offensive Line
As always, Seattle’s line has a lot to prove. They’ll return four starters after letting Luke Joeckel walk. Their only major additions so far include signing D.J. Fluker and getting George Fant back from a torn ACL he suffered in the 2017 preseason. In other words, unless the line takes a huge step forward under new coach Mike Solari, we can expect more of the same from them. That’s not a good sign.
Pass Blocking
Penny was fine as a receiver when called upon, but he was not highly-rated as a blocker. That could lead to more opportunities for Carson and Prosise. Part of his appeal is volume, and his lack of ability in the passing game will cut into that appeal.
Conclusion
Paying an RB3 price for Penny would be a steal. Seattle’s offensive line will scare people off, but Seattle’s best backs have produced fairly well when healthy. Due to the potential volume and general scarcity at the position, Penny could easily be an RB2 at season’s end. It’s been a while since a Seattle running back has helped a fantasy team when a championship, so there’s plenty of risk. Still, Penny is in position to be the best rookie running back in fantasy after Saquon Barkley.
