The Virginia Cavaliers reached a bowl game for the first time since 2011 last season. That gave Bronco Mendenhall some much needed breathing room after a disastrous debut 2-10 campaign in 2016. However, the Wahoos will be replacing a lot of talent from last year’s team in 2018 and getting back to the postseason may prove difficult.
Virginia 2018 regular season win total
Over 5 (-110)
Under 5 (-120)
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook
What Happened Last Year
Virginia started the season strong in 2017. The Cavaliers were bowl eligible by the first week of November after a 5-1 start. They pulled off a number of surprising wins to get to that point, trouncing Boise State on the road and knocking off Duke at home two weeks later.
The Wahoos did not end the season on a high note though. Virginia lost six of its last seven and was soundly outplayed in many of those games. A win over Georgia Tech got them to bowl eligibility, but the Cavaliers weren’t even close in many of their losses. The closest loss was by 10 points, and they were soundly thumped by Navy in their bowl game.
What Will Change This Year
The big question for Virginia heading into this season is whether or not they can continue to get good play out of the quarterback position. Kurt Benkert started 23 of 25 games over the past two seasons, and he will certainly be missed. He was the best quarterback the school had produced in quite some time.
Arizona State transfer Bryce Perkins is likely to replace him. Perkins spent last year at junior college getting playing experience, and he will be asked to do quite a bit. He is a very good runner, so expect him to use his mobility often. There isn’t anyone with real experience behind him.
Perkins is not going to get much help from the offensive line. The Cavaliers had the worst running game in the conference last season, and they only return two starters from 2017. There just isn’t much talent up front and that will put the onus on the new quarterback.
Defensively, the Cavaliers aren’t in good shape. They fell apart at the tail end of the season, allowing 35.6 PPG over their last seven games. Kelly Poppinga was brought in to assist Nick Howell on this front, but the front seven lacks experience. The Cavaliers allowed nearly 200 YPG on the ground, and that number might not improve in 2018.
Outlook & Prediction
The good news for Virginia is that it has a workable non-conference slate. Richmond and Liberty shouldn’t pose a real threat, and the Cavaliers will likely be double-digit favorites at home against Ohio. They will likely be underdogs on the road to Indiana, but not by much.
Outside of maybe North Carolina, it’s hard to pick a team that Virginia will be favored against though. The Cavaliers are trending downwards right now, and they were somewhat fortunate to get to six wins in 2017. Making it to six wins would be an incredible achievement for Mendenhall with the dearth of talent on this roster.
