It feels like the 2015 campaign was decades ago for the North Carolina Tar Heels. Just three years ago, North Carolina was the team to beat in the ACC Coastal. The Tar Heels went undefeated in conference play and finished the season 11-3.
There is been a precipitous drop-off since then. North Carolina managed to go 8-5 in 2016, but last year the Tar Heels finished a disastrous 3-9. If Fedora can’t get back to a bowl this season, he might be out of a job at the end of the year.
North Carolina 2018 regular season win total
Over 6 (-105)
Under 6 (-125)
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook
What Happened Last Year
It’s tough to fault Fedora for many of last year’s problems. North Carolina was extremely unlucky when it came to injuries, with 18 different players suffering season-ending injuries. The team was also unlucky when it came to turnovers, averaging nearly two turnovers per game.
The Tar Heels didn’t give their fans much to cheer about last season. They had some near-misses against good teams like Louisville and Miami, but UNC was hammered by other quality teams like Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. Their lone win against a power conference opponent came against Pittsburgh.
What Will Change This Year
UNC is unlikely to receive the double whammy of being bit by the injury bug and the turnover bug for a second straight season. The Tar Heels were unfortunate in that area, but at least the injuries gave the younger players a chance to gains some valuable playing time.
John Papuchis is in his second year as the team’s defensive coordinator, and this unit will need to make some strides. North Carolina has finished dead last in the ACC in run defense for five straight seasons. The front seven does return four starters, yet having returning starters isn’t always a good thing. The run defense is likely to be a weakness once again.
The secondary should be decent though. UNC was average against the past last season, and the Tar Heels return most of their starters from 2017.
Fedora is seen as an offensive guru, but the offense was a sore spot last year. The Tar Heels were unable to get much production from the quarterback position and that must change. Both Chazz Surratt and Nathan Elliott return and will again do battle to see who is the starter at the beginning of the year. There is only one returning starter along the offensive line, so mobility is going to be important for whoever the starter is.
Outlook & Prediction
It’s hard to see a way for North Carolina to get back to bowl eligibility. The Tar Heels are unlikely to be very good on defense, and the offense still has some concerns too. An inexperienced offensive line won’t make things easy on Surratt and Elliott either.
The schedule doesn’t do the Tar Heels any favors either. North Carolina starts the year on the road against California and East Carolina, before opening at home against UCF. It’s unlikely for the Tar Heels to get to six wins, and that may spell the end for Fedora.
