We wrap up our way-to-early look at the NFL Week 1 lines with the afternoon and late games Sunday, then finish up with the Monday Night doubleheader.
You want odds? We’ve got them thanks to the oddsmakers at BetDSI Sportsbook. You can read Part 1 by clicking here. Part 2 is just a click away as well.
Sunday, Sept. 9
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, O/U: 44)
We’ve already flirted with a couple of upsets in our way-too-early look, but I’m taking this one beyond flirting. We’re ordering drinks and moving to a booth. The Panthers are plugging in a new offensive system with Norv Turner and with the offseason rules the way they are, will still be on training wheels when this game shows up. Meanwhile, the Cowboys should already be rolling on offense with a unit that, for the most part, has been together three seasons and boasts what’s probably the best offensive line in football.
If I’m picking this game today, I go Cowboys and the over. I’m not sure what I’ll see in the preseason that will change my mind.
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (EVEN, O/U: 44)
Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks and the Cardinals are taking the field with a new head coach, former Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. I like the Cardinals to finish way better at the end of the year than most people expect, but September Alex Smith is usually the best Alex Smith.
David Johnson is a serious wild card and it’s funny to me how many of us have completely forgotten this kid existed after missing a year with an injury. I’ll definitely be flipping back and forth between this and the Cowboys-Panthers game. Regardless of which way you think you might go betting on this game, now is the time to pick. This line will definitely move before opening day. My guess is it’ll be Redskins -3.
Sunday Night, Sept. 9
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5, O/U: 47.5)
We all love Aaron Rodgers, but I’m not sure what the NFL and NBC was thinking when they tossed this game on the schedule. That -8.5 is no joke and the O/U tells you they think the Pack are putting up 30-plus all on their own. They’re probably right.
Rodgers is 15-4 all-time against the Bears and threw four touchdowns in his only game against them last season. The only reason you even think about Chicago here is if you can form in your imagination a scenario where new Bears head coach Matt Nagy has turned Mitchell Trubiski into Carson Wentz. I like Trubisky, but not that much.
On the bright side, I don’t see this line moving at all so there’s no reason not to sit on your wallet awhile.
Monday, Sept. 10
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, O/U: 44)
Your Monday Night opener might be the toughest game to sit through of the entire 16-game season-opening slate. New York overachieved last season by not going 0-16 and the Lions overachieved by winning any games at all with Jim Caldwell as head coach.
New Detroit head coach Matt Patricia will be coaching this and every game like his career depends on it (and it kind of does). This is another line I don’t see moving much and you can’t underscore the fact that Jets head coach Todd Bowles has faced off against a Patricia defense for years. You could pick the Lions here and be riding the edge of your seat until the final two minutes.
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+2.5, O/U: 49.5)
This line has completely flipped since the schedule was first announced. It opened at Raiders -2.5 and has since done a 180. Will it move again? It all depends on how good the teams look in the preseason, but I wouldn’t expect it to hit more than Rams -3.
Is it worth a look now? Probably not. Holdouts could still be an issue with the Rams come opening week and who knows what injuries happen in the preseason. Both these teams look loaded with an advantage towards L.A. but that could all change in September.
