The New England Patriots lost Super Bowl 52 after they were surprised by Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re back in the big game with a vengeance and there are a number of good reasons why they’ll win the game. Here are the top three:
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They’ll Be Able To Run The Ball
The Patriots commitment to the ground game has allowed them to control their two playoff games so far and that’s been huge. They ran for 155 yards in the Divisional Round against the Los Angeles Chargers and won the time of possession battle, 38:20-21:40. Then, they pounded the rock again in the AFC Championship Game, compiling 176 yards and winning the time of possession, 43:59-20:53. That’s impressive.
Now they’re going to go up against a defense that allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season, which was the worst mark in the NFL. The Rams allowed 7.1 yards per carry when they faced the Chargers, 5.9 yards per carry in their first matchup with the Seattle Seahawks, 5.5 yards per carry against the Chicago Bears and 8.0 yards per carry against the Green Bay Packers.
Sony Michel, who leads the playoffs in rushing, should help the Patriots control the pace of this game, control the ball and keep the Rams offense on the sidelines.
They Have Experience On Their Side
At the end of the day, who do you trust more: a 24-year-old Jared Goff who is playing in his first Super Bowl? Or Tom Brady, who is playing in the Super Bowl for the third straight season and ninth time overall? Brady’s averaging 322 passing yards per Super Bowl with a 98.0 passer rating.
And in terms of coaches, Bill Belichick is arguably the best coach of all time. Sean McVay might be an up-and-coming coach (he’s already arrived, if that’s the case) but this is his first Super Bowl experience.
Even if you take a look further across the rosters, the Patriots are loaded with players who have been here before. As for the Rams, they’ve got Wade Phillips, who was the defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos when they beat the Carolina Panthers — they also have cornerback Aqib Talib and C.J. Anderson. As a team, they’ve been to the playoffs just twice since 2005. The Patriots have played in the AFC Championship Game for 13 straight seasons.
Nerves will be a factor. So will experience and execution. Those factors are in the Patriots corner.
Goff Could Be An Issue
Few people are mentioning this because Goff made the throws when the team needed him the most, but keep in mind that he has struggled in the playoffs. He had a 100.8 quarterback rating over the last two regular seasons, but his playoff rating is just 78.9. He was just 15-for-28 for 186 yards against the Cowboys and was 25-for-40 for 297 yards, a touchdown and a pick (which was not his fault) against the Saints. What’s forgotten in the NFC Championship Game is the Rams couldn’t even pick up a first down until a successful fake punt on their third drive.
And keep in mind that this comes on the heels of the final five games where Goff had just six touchdowns and six interceptions.
In fairness, he played that last stretch without Cooper Kupp, his favorite weapon on third down and one of the games best slot wide receivers. The Rams averaged 34.9 points per game through their first 12 games, but are down to 27.3 since. Goff completed 77 percent of his attempts to Kupp with six touchdowns and no picks, so missing Kupp directly impacts Goff and this offense’s consistency.
New England should do a decent job of stopping the run (11th ranked run defense), which means the game will be put on Goff’s shoulders. He’ll need to go above and beyond what he’s done so far in the playoffs to win this game.
