The Kentucky Derby field is impressive, both in quality and quantity. At least seven horses look like strong choices to win.
That competitive depth makes Saturday’s race intriguing. So does the crowded 20-horse field. And so does the inexperience of the favorite Justify, a colt with a limited track record of just three races.
Justify won each of those races easily, though, and impressed horsemen during workouts this week in Louisville.
“He’s always been a superior animal,” trainer Bob Baffert told the Louisville Courier-Journal. “When they’re that big and beautiful and then they can run and the way he’s bred, all the ingredients are there. Now we just need some racing luck.”
Drawing the No. 7 post Tuesday was helpful too. “We didn’t want the 1-hole, that’s for sure,” Baffert told the Associated Press. “I was relieved when I saw him in seven.”
RACE FEATURES WIDE-OPEN FIELD
Mendelssohn is widely regarded as Justify’s biggest threat. A dominant performance at the UAE Derby — winning by 18 1/2 lengths — served notice to bettors. Drawing the No. 14 post Tuesday was another plus.
But a European-trained horse has never won the Kentucky Derby.
Florida Derby winner Audible drew the No. 5 post, which is highly favorable. Arkansas Derby and Rebel Starks winner Magnum Moon, Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso, Blue Grass Stakes winner Good Magic and Santa Anita Derby runner-up Bolt d’Oro are the other major threats.
“It’s one of the toughest Derbies I’ve ever seen,” Baffert told reporters. “All the important horses got good draws.”
Good Magic won the Breeders Cup Juvenile race last November and was voted the year’s best two-year-old. In other years it may have been a heavy favorite to win this race.
Bolt d’Oro got blown away by Justify in the Santa Anita Derby, but trainer Mick Ruis expects a better showing Saturday. “We weren’t sharp for that race,” Ruis told SI.com. “Different race this time.”
TACKLING THE APOLLO CURSE
The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old was Apollo, way back in 1882. This race features two favorites, Justify and Magnum Moon, that did not race as a 2-year-old.
So perhaps this is the year the curse ends. Like Justify, Magnum Moon, trained by Todd Pletcher, is unbeaten.
Magnum Moon drifted to the outside down the stretch while winning the Arkansas Derby, but Pletcher insisted the horse only gets distracted while well ahead.
“Which is a nice problem to have,” Pletcher said.
Pletcher is also unconcerned by this horse’s inexperience. “I don’t think there’s any question that the Apollo Curse will be broken here at some point,” he told reporters. “The trend is a lot different now than it was however many years ago you wanna go back. Horses just don’t run as many times leading into the Derby as they used to.”
D. Wayne Lukas has trained four Derby winners. So when says he likes both Justify and Magnum Moon, despite their inexperience, you pay attention.
“I don’t buy into the Apollo Curse or whatever at all, mainly because Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher have got the horses,” Lukas told reporters. “Todd’s going to have his ready, and Baffert is going to have his.”
But Baffert notes that this is one of the better Derby fields in recent years.
“It’s good to be back with a horse that has a legitimate chance of winning,” he said. “But there are six other horses that can pull it off if all goes well. It’s going to be a very competitive race.”
