For some time, notably since the post-World War II population boom, many Americans, from all across the political spectrum have come to regard California as a world unto itself.
Come November, voters in the Golden State will deal with a unique ballot proposition that would divided the state into three new ones: Northern California, which would encompass 40 counties from the Oregon border south to Santa Clara and Santa Cruz. California, which would include six counties, including Los Angeles and points west and northwest to Monteryey and San Benito, and Southern California, which would include 12 counties from north of Fresno, south to the Mexican border.
Supporters of the move collected enough signatures to put the question on the general-election ballot.
It should be noted that the ballot question is just the first step in the process; the move would require approval by first the California legislature and then Congress. It would also likely be challenged in court.
This isn’t the first time the issue of dividing California has been raised, but it may be the most serious attempt in more than a century. In 1859 the California legislature approved a measure that would have divided the state in half, but Congress never considered the issue because it had other pressing matters to deal with, such as the approach of the Civil War.
If this latest effort clears all the hurdles, America would become a nation of 52 states. Our friends BetDSI Sportsbook have offered their views on all this from several different perspectives.
Will California vote to pass referendum to separate into three states?
Yes +1500
No -3500
The experts are requiring an investor put up $3,500 of their hard-earned money to win $100 if the vote to split up the state is unsuccessful. While there unquestionably are a sizeable number of California voters who would like to be free of what they see as shackles binding them to the state capitol in Sacramento, the ramifications of such a move would bring major changes to the lives of every one of the state’s nearly 40 million residents; the pipeline that provides and funds existing state services, from education to driver’s licenses, would likely be dismantled.
We don’t see a majority of the state’s voters as being willing to take that step.
Percentage of voters that vote “FOR” California state split
Over 29.5 (-115)
Under 29.5 (-115)
The folks who set odds for a living seem to have this right. More yes votes are likely to come from rural areas, and conservative voters resentful of seeing their tax dollars going to support ‘Big Government’ programs (that scenario is not unique to California). But there would be consequences to these same voters uncoupling themselves from exiting state services, and the funding that goes with those services. A new state government, or three new state governments would have to start from scratch and it’s our opinion that fewer than 29.5 percent of the state’s voters will be comfortable with the idea of doing that.
Will Congress allow California to split if the referendum ends up passing?
Yes +1000
No -2000
The view from here is a resounding NO. There is no way that Congress will let this happen. The reasons are varied, but the chief obstacle is the fact that approval would expand the Senate to 104 members. Six senators would serve an area that has been represented by only two since California achieved statehood in 1850. It’s likely that a minimum of four of those Senate seats would be filled by Democrats, a prospect that likely would make the current Senate Republican leadership uncomfortable.
Then there is the matter of seniority. Even if California’s two incumbent senators. Diane Feinstein and Kamala Harris, both Democrats, stood for election and won, they would technically be representing new states. That’s a recipe for a substantial helping of partisan squabbling.
Our view is Congress will vote this measure down or punt it down the road as far as possible.
Analysis
The last time a new state was created from an existing one was in 1863 when West Virginia was admitted to the union as the 35th state in the midst of the Civil War over the issue of slavery. What is now West Virginia had been part of Virginia, which was a slave state.
The process of creating West Virginia was essentially the same as what some Californians are trying to do now, but the issues involved are nowhere near as volatile. As we see it, California voters will exercise sound judgment and America will remain a nation of 50 states.
