Less than two weeks away, on June 14th, UFC 174 comes to us from Vancouver, Canada with a card headlined by the Flyweight Title fight between Champion Demetrious Johnson and challenger Ali Bauganitov. For Johnson, it will be the fourth defense of the title he won back in September of 2012, and Bauganitov would appear to be his most difficult opponent on paper to date.
Right now, the sportbooks have Johnson a strong (-425) favorite, with the return on Bagautinov hovering around (+320). Is their any value in the Russian as an underdog, as he tries to become the first UFC Champion from his country. (Andrei Arlovski is Belorussian).
Bagautinov usually benefits from setting a high pace, and he relies on being a big puncher to set up his takedowns. One of the disadvantages he faces is trying to sustain a frenetic pace over the course of a five round fight. Johnson has been there before, in fact fighting in the later, championship rounds has become one of Johnson’s strengths. Though Johnson has won by split decision at times, leaving it to the judges in a long fight will probably work against Bagautinov.
This means Bagautinov is likely to come in and try to mount a finishing offensive rush in the first or second round. If he is successful and lands a big punch, or is able to get the finish on the ground, then he will have accomplished a great deal. Johnson, for all his lack of attention, has been a very solid champion and one who should be in the pound for pound rankings for his skill and diversity.
Johnson is going to be hard to take down, and he is going to be hard to hit for Bagaunitov. Johnson has great defense, and as he has proved over and over against throughout his career, he has been able to weather the attacks of men who are bigger than he is. Bagautinov, for all his skill, is likely to find that for every move he has, Johnson is prepared with a counter. As Johnson feels the Russian tire, he should be able to pull away by putting his foot to the pedal. In the end, the Russian may prove tough to finish for Demtrious, but unless he gets lucky, the Russian will be going home with no gold.
