NCAAF Picks: The margin of error and for payouts in the SEC is razor thin as proven last week by the Auburn Tigers in their 35-31 win at Ole Miss. Ole Miss had what looked like the go ahead TD late in the game but Laquon Treadwell was shown on replay to have fumbled the ball inches short of glory and the cashier’s cage. For the Texas A&M Aggies as season that started with unlimited promise has now turned into a bitter disappointment.
The Auburn Tigers will host the Texas A&M Aggies at Jordan Hare Stadium on Saturday with coverage om CBS starting at 3:30 PM ET. Auburn opened as a 21-point favorite.
Lady Luck Smiles at Aubie
Auburn is 7-1 straight up, 4-4 against the spread, and 5-3 over the total. The defending SEC champions have struggled to maintain board value as the defending SEC champs and as a team that is in the top tier of Final Four playoff contenders. Auburn ranks 14th in the nation for scoring offense but their 55th ranked defense remains the elephant in the room.
Red Ink gives new meaning to Aggie Yell
Texas A&M is 6-3 SU but 3-6 ATS with a 3-6 mark under the total. The Aggies are coming off a lackluster 21-16 home win over UL Monroe as they failed to cover the spread in their fifth consecutive game as 32 point chalks. The Aggies are 20th in the nation for scoring offense but 78th for total defense. The thrill is gone for QB Kenny Hill who is suspended until November 15.
Matchup and Pick
Auburn has been an outstanding betting value at home as of late with nine payouts in their last 11 games at Jordan Hare Stadium. The Tigers have gone over the total in eight out of their last 10 home games. Auburn has lost some betting value lately as a favorite however with just two payouts in their last six games as a chalk with four out of their last five games as a favorite going under the total.
Texas A&M has been a weak betting value on the road with just two payouts in their last eight away tilts. The Aggies have gone over the total in five out of their last eight away games. The Aggies have lost seven out of their last 10 games against the spread as a dog with 10 out of their last 15 games as a pup going under the total.
Auburn scored a 45-41 payout at Texas A&M last year as a 13 point dog.
We’ll call for Auburn (-21) and over the total in what should be a high-scoring affair.
