World Cup Odds: Uruguay -262, Costa Rica +650, Draw +340
Why Uruguay Can Win
For all the talk concerning Uruguay’s strike force (and for good reason), the back end of the team might be even stronger. Arevalo Rios and Walter Gargano will shield the back four, which has all kinds of experience. Diego Lugano has 94 caps and captains the team, but Diego Godin just had a marvelous season with Atletico Madrid and could be the main man at the back now. Maxi Pereira has 90 caps and Alvaro Pereira can play at the back or on the left side of the midfield, giving Uruguay some flexibility. Finally, Fernando Muslera has 58 caps and is firmly entrenched as the #1 keeper for Uruguay, who attacks so well because they’re excellent defensively.
The attack will be led by Edinson Cavani, who is brilliant, but he is in the shadow of Zlatan Ibrahimovich at Paris Saint-Germain and Luis Suarez for Uruguay. Suarez, who was the Player of the Year in the English Premiership, will almost certainly miss this game due to a knee injury, so this could be Cavani’s chance to shine. He will be joined up front by Diego Forlan, who has been in decline since leading Uruguay to fourth place in South Africa. The key man will be Cristian Rodriguez, who has to be the supply line from midfield.
Why Costa Rica Can Win
Costa Rica has looked like a much better team under Jorge Luis Pinto, who has been known to try new things with the team. For example, he played much of the qualifiers with a 3-5-2 formation to get the fullbacks forward, but Pinto will likely go back to a four-man back line in the group stages as Costa Rica face Uruguay, England and Italy. When they want to be, Costa Rica can be a very disciplined defensive team and that is how they can hold their own in this group. Giancarlo Gonzalez, Michael Umana, Junior Diaz and Cristian Gamboa all have at least 35 caps (Umana’s 83 lead the way) and they know what Pinto likes to do. Keylor Navas has proven to be solid in goal for Costa Rica.
They also need a goal from Bryan Ruiz, or at least the ability to take pressure off the defense every once in a while and maybe force Uruguay to make a mistake. Ruiz plays for PSV in Holland and has 13 goals in 63 appearances for his country.
Outlook
Uruguay has six wins and two draws in eight meetings with Costa Rica, who gave the Uruguayans all they wanted and then some in a 2-1 playoff loss over two legs during 2010 qualifiers. Not having Suarez in the lineup hurts Uruguay a little, but Cavani and Forlan should be enough to get three points for Uruguay, although Costa Rica won’t go down without a fight.
Pick: Uruguay
