The Duke Blue Devils have struggled in the NCAA tournament, suffering from upsets in the past few seasons. How can this team get better and find the qualities that can enable them to make a deeper run in March?
What Went Wrong Last Season?
The Blue Devils ran into a problem that has affected them many times in the NCAA tournament over the past decade. Duke, through 2004, was a fairly reliable bet to make the Final Four and get a number one or number two seed in the NCAA tournament.
However, since Duke made the 2004 Final Four, the Blue Devils have returned to the Final Four only once, in 2010, when they won the national title. The problem that surfaced for the Blue Devils in many of their recent March Madness losses is that they faced a team with great spacing and ball movement.
Duke was slow with its defensive rotations and did not manage to get to the ball in time to deny a good shot. Teams could displace Duke’s defense with just a few movements and use speed to get to the basket. Duke would collapse in the paint and try to head off dribble penetration, and teams would then pass the ball out to the perimeter and get a wide-open three-point shot.
Occasionally, Duke has lost in the NCAAs because shots didn’t fall, but the Blue Devils usually lose because their defense isn’t ready for prime time.
This is definitely what happened to Duke in its first NCAA tournament game last year. The Blue Devils usually allow more than 70 points in their March Madness losses, and when – as a number three seed – they faced 14th-seeded Mercer from the Atlantic Sun Conference, they couldn’t clamp down on the Bears, who pretty much did what they wanted against Mike Krzyzewski’s team.
Mercer shot 56 percent from the field. Duke was occasionally able to pressure the ball and disrupt what Mercer was doing, but those sequences were few and far between for the Blue Devils, who really couldn’t sustain a lot of effort or efficiency at the defensive end of the court.
Quinn Cook scored 23 for Duke, but he didn’t get help from the two teammates who carried the Blue Devils for most of the season. Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood were both first-round picks in the 2014 NBA Draft, but Parker went 4-of-14 from the field against Mercer while Hood finished 2 for 10. Those numbers were not nearly enough to offset Mercer’s hot shooting and effective offense. Duke had lost its first NCAA tournament game of March, again.
Offseason Changes
The Blue Devils lose Parker and Hood, which will make them weaker on the wings, but a heralded recruiting class featuring some of the most touted low-post players in the nation will give Duke some freshman muscle in the paint. If Coach K can bring along the freshmen big men in due time, the Blue Devils could be more of a defensive force in the 2015 NCAAs.
Projected Finish
The Blue Devils should win the ACC. They should be able to get enough low-post defense and rebounding to outclass other teams in the conference, which have not been as consistent in the paint in recent seasons.
Pick: First In The ACC, Sweet 16 In The NCAA Tournament
