The Toronto Blue Jays will be taking on their division rival Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will televise the matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Odds
Vegas has listed Boston (-185) as the favorite over Toronto (+175). Bettors can gamble on the game’s total with odds sitting at -115 for over 10 runs and -105 for under 10. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at -125 for taking the Blue Jays +1.5 runs and +105 for the Red Sox -1.5 runs.
The Blue Jays have gone 25-30 SU this year and are 28-26 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 5.2 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having gained 0.0 units ATS. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 38-17 SU and 29-25 ATS. The team has gained 11.1 units for moneyline bettors and 4.5 units ATS.
Neither side has positioned itself as an obvious over/under play this season. Boston games have a 26-26-2 over/under record so far in 2018. Toronto has an over/under record of 24-22-8.
Right-hander Sam Gaviglio will get the nod for the visiting Blue Jays. Gaviglio is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 18 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 2.08 ERA against Boston this year.
The Red Sox are sending lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (5-1, 4.02 ERA) to the mound. Rodriguez has 65 punchouts and 19 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.29. Rodriguez is 1-0 with three strikeouts and a 4.05 ERA over one starts against Toronto this year.
Toronto’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.32 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.07 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.79, along with a K/9 of 8.80.
Blue Jays hitters have slashed .229/.312/.407 on their way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Toronto’s hitters have been led by right fielder Kevin Pillar and third baseman Yangervis Solarte. Pillar is slashing .271/.315/.448 with four home runs, 21 RBIs, 27 runs and nine steals, while Solarte has a .257 average with 11 homers, 33 RBIs and 26 runs scored.
Maintaining a slash line of .338/.397/.535 across 78 plate appearances, Pillar performed well against lefty pitching on the road last year (compared to his overall season line of .255/.300/.403).
In the other dugout, Boston’s pitchers have allowed 3.8 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.82, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.9. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 3.12, a WHIP of 1.18 and a K/9 of 9.6. In 34 divisional games, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.27 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.88.
Boston’s hitters have put up 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .278/.361/.568 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
The Red Sox offense has been led by Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Betts is hitting .359/.437/.750 with 17 home runs, 37 RBIs, 52 runs and 13 stolen bases, and Martinez’s line sits at .323/.381/.657 with 17 homers, 45 RBIs and 34 runs scored.
Martinez enjoyed batting at home last year, slashing .355/.439/.820 over 253 plate appearances (his overall season line was .303/.376/.690).
The Blue Jays have lost 5.3 units and are 12-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in seven of those games, compared to 10 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 13.2 units and are 25-17 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 20 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Blue Jays, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has cashed in three of Boston’s last seven games.
The Blue Jays have lost three of their last four games SU while the Red Sox have won four of their last five SU.
The Toronto defense has allowed 11 errors over the last 10 games, compared to five errors for Boston over its last 10.
The Blue Jays have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit 18 over their last 10.
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